#198 🔮 $5 Billion in Prediction Market Volume Over One NFL Weekend

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A couple of weeks ago we traced fantasy sports from bedroom drafts to billion-dollar businesses and said Prediction Markets were next. Given the week we’ve had, there's no putting it off.

Prediction markets recorded more than $5 billion in trading volume over the first NFL weekend alone, their two biggest days on record. Meanwhile, New York sports betting handle fell 15.3% year-on-year in August. The American Gaming Association (AGA) is complaining that prediction markets are "backdoor sports betting". Alanis Morissette would be impressed. We break down the partnerships, the platforms, the capital and the regulation shaping what comes next.

Prediction Markets Enter Their Next Phase

Six months ago, we flagged the momentum behind sports prediction markets. Kalshi had generated more than $1 billion in Super Bowl Sunday trading volume, while Novig had raised $75 million and Pred another $2.5 million. Since then, the category has moved into the mainstream, across sports. Billion-dollar acquisitions and raises, league-wide partnership deals, athletes as distribution channels, operators building federally regulated exchanges, and $5 billion in volume over a single NFL weekend. Here's how it stacks up.

Sports Partnerships & Distribution

• Baseball: MLB named Polymarket its Official Prediction Market Exchange and established an integrity framework with the CFTC. The Mets became the first MLB team to partner with a prediction market through Novig, though these became a pattern as Kalshi struck exclusive multi-year partnerships with the Braves, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres and Giants, while MLB kept its league-level exclusive with Polymarket, who also added the New York Yankees.

• Football: FIFA appointed ADI Predictstreet as its first official prediction market partner, while LaLiga partnered with Polymarket in the US and Canada, followed by Serie A signing a US agreement and Liga MX joining the platform.

• Golf: LIV Golf partnered with Novig for the first prediction-market activation around a live professional golf event.

• Tennis: Polymarket secured official ATP Tour prediction-market status and exclusive category streaming rights.

• Athletes: LeBron James partnered with Polymarket weeks after his DraftKings deal expired, following Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bryson DeChambeau and Lionel Messi into the category. The NBA permits players to endorse prediction markets while barring them from promoting contracts tied to NBA games, and the NFL and PGA Tour reportedly ban such deals.

• Key Partnerships: Sportradar and Polymarket expanded their agreement across more than 20 leagues and competitions covering roughly 300,000 matches a year, adding the Bundesliga, Euroleague Basketball, the CBA, the NBL, the Tennis Grand Slams and UTR Pro events on top of existing ATP, MLB, NHL and MLS coverage. OneFootball integrated Polymarket across its digital ecosystem, DAZN integrated ADI Predictstreet into its viewing platform, and Fanatics Markets launched a co-branded World Cup prediction hub with ADI.

Platforms, Exchanges & Launches

• Underdog acquired its CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse before launching prediction markets on that infrastructure. Novig secured CFTC designation and launched nationwide.

• DraftKings launched its proprietary DKeX exchange, reporting approximately $3.4 billion in annualised consumer volume across DraftKings Predictions.

• FanDuel Predicts expanded its sports and entertainment contracts through Crypto.com's regulated infrastructure, while Fanatics agreed to acquire its CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse from BGC.

• Robinhood became an official partner and equity stakeholder in Crypto.com's OG.com exchange, routing some event contract trading through OG.com's CFTC-registered derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, in what the firms described as OG.com's largest B2B prediction markets partnership by volume.

Capital & Consolidation

• Novig raised $75 million, Pred secured $2.5 million and ProphetX raised $35 million. At the other end of the market, IG Group agreed to acquire Underdog for up to approximately $1.3 billion.

• The top of the market repriced twice in a fortnight. Polymarket raised $1 billion at a $21 billion valuation in a round led by 1789 Capital, which contributed around $300 million on top of an earlier $200 million investment, up from a $15 billion mark set in April. Kalshi is seeking at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, with Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management in advanced talks to lead, which would nearly double the $22 billion it reached in May.

Scale, Regulation & the Test Ahead

• Demand has surged. Kalshi recorded more than $1 billion in Super Bowl Sunday volume, while Novig reported $125 million in its first week as a federally regulated sports prediction market.

• The NFL season pushed volumes higher. Prediction markets recorded more than $5 billion over opening weekend, while Kalshi's 30-day volume reached $14.1 billion by 4 September, with more than 80% coming from sports. Pew Research estimated global monthly prediction-market volume at $50.6 billion in July 2026.

• Regulation is catching up. The CFTC opened broader rulemaking and later proposed a framework covering event contracts, while a Washington court ordered Kalshi to block sports contracts in the state.

• The legal fight has intensified. The Ninth Circuit ruled against sports event contracts, while lawsuits and appeals spread across multiple states. New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to decide whether prediction markets can offer sports wagers outside state gambling laws, while Robinhood, Crypto.com and Kalshi continued pursuing appeals.

Our Take

• It is clear that prediction markets have moved beyond an emerging alternative to sportsbooks. Sports organisations are treating them as commercial and fan-engagement partners, clubs and athletes are signing individually, major operators are investing in exchange infrastructure, and capital is backing new entrants and consolidation at valuations that price these businesses as here-to-stay.

• The unresolved piece is regulation, and it is hardening since we last wrote. While the category posts record volumes, the lawyers keep busy in the courts, buying time until the inevitable clarity arrives: this is sports betting, in a new suit.

• The American Gaming Association (AGA), which represents the regulated sports betting industry, is not being subtle about it. Its president called prediction markets "dangerously misleading" for marketing sports wagers as investments. New York, the largest sports betting state, just reported its second ever year-on-year decline in monthly handle. Though any boo-hoos from the AGA are not without their irony. To quote Omar Little from The Wire "It's all in the game though, right?".

In the end, the fan will be the one holding the bill. Any predictions on how much it'll cost them?

Top News From The World Of Sports Tech & Biz

• 🏀 NBA Launchpad, the league’s technology startup programme, opened applications for its sixth cohort in 2027, introducing its first Asia-specific track to encourage innovation from the region.

• ⚽ Tottenham Hotspur launched Hotspur Labs with The Players Fund, creating a venture programme that connected the club with early-stage, venture-backed companies.

• ⚽ Juventus’ Allianz Stadium hosted VitalMatch Accelerator’s 2026 Demo Day on September 9, concluding the first edition held entirely in Turin, which supported seven sport, wellness and health startups through a CDP Venture Capital initiative with Juventus Forward as its sport and hosting partner.

• ⚙️ NVIDIA unveiled sports technology developments at IBC 2026, including AI body tracking, slow-motion replay tools and multimodal sports intelligence for broadcasting and global streaming.

• 🏈 Fan.Live and Creator Sports Network launched a live 3D NFL visualisation product that used tracking data licensed through Genius Sports to let creators show game action on their social channels.

• 🏍️ MotoGP Group selected Accenture to develop a direct-to-fan streaming platform targeted for the 2027 season, using Accenture Media Engage to bring MotoGP, Moto2, Moto3 and World Superbike onto shared tech stack.

• 📺 Netflix, Amazon and YouTube formed the Streaming Access and Choice Alliance, a Washington, D.C. lobbying group, amid criticism over the cost of watching sports across streaming services.

• ⚽ UEFA and Meta strengthened their collaboration to tackle unauthorised use of UEFA’s intellectual property and audiovisual content across Meta’s platforms, speeding up removals to protect fans and commercial partners during major competitions, including the 2026 club finals.

• ⚽ CANAL+ and LaLiga signed a strategic agreement to combat sports-content piracy across nearly 50 countries in Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and Haiti.

• ⚽ The French Football Federation withdrew its support for Gianni Infantino and called for reform of FIFA’s governance after his failed private-investment plan, which it said had damaged football’s reputation and unity.

• ⚽ The Saudi Pro League launched a distribution model for live Roshn Saudi League matches across 16 international markets, combining broadcasts through its own channels with approved creators, clubs, players and third-party platforms to expand access and grow its global audience.

• ⚽ Mexico’s antitrust regulator, CNA, opened an investigation into suspected anti-competitive conduct in professional football after finding grounds to examine potential abuse of market power, putting Liga MX’s concentrated club ownership and broadcasting rights under scrutiny.

• 💰 HEARTBEATS, operator of digital trading card collection service ORICAL, raised approximately $15 million in a Series C round led by Artemis.

• 💰 Nix Biosensors, a real-time hydration monitoring technology provider, closed a $10 million Series A, bringing total funding to $17 million to support growth and development of Nix Health’s proprietary hydration algorithms.

• 💰 Mirror Fit, operator of AI-powered smart mirror MIRROR FIT. and 24-hour, fully private women-only beauty gym HITORI WELLNESS, raised approximately $1.63 million to expand HITORI WELLNESS.

• 💰 Kickback Soccer Media closed a $1 million seed round and announced a national media network to financially support independent outlets covering MLS clubs and distribute league-wide content through their podcasts.

• 💰 Xanh Entertainment, developer of EscapeSquid, is raising $2.5 million in seed funding to develop and expand its fitness, entertainment and travel platform, which aimed to connect at-home virtual cycling with participating fitness studios, local events and destination travel experiences.

• 🤝 Colin Cowherd acquired a minority stake in English Premier League club Ipswich Town for an undisclosed amount through one of the funds invested in the team.

• 🤝 Billionaire financiers Mark Walter and Todd Boehly reportedly neared a deal to sell their Chelsea FC stakes to the club’s majority owner, Clearlake Capital.

• 💸 TMRW Sports, the parent company of indoor golf leagues TGL and WTGL, reportedly neared completion of a new funding round with participation from existing investor Dynasty Equity at a valuation above $1 billion, double its nearly $500 million Series A valuation in 2024.

• 👟 Nike appointed Alexandre Arnault, son of LVMH chief Bernard Arnault, to its board as the sportswear company pursued a turnaround.

• 🏈 Apollo Sports Capital expressed interest in investing in the NFL after backing the New York Yankees, Wrexham AFC and Atlético de Madrid, with chief strategy officer Sam Porter outlining its ambitions at Front Office Sports’ Asset Class event in New York despite the firm lacking approved NFL private-equity partner status.